Call Sign: Air Force One
First the bad news: No Republican Presidential Nominee has carried Arlington since 1980, when it was one of the most liberal jurisdictions in Frank Wolf’s 10th Congressional District, and even back then VA8 GOP was losing in Alexandria by a margin of over two to one. So, since Jim Moran only captured the district in 1990 with only 52% of the vote, and Don Beyer broke the all-time record in vote percentage during the 2018 midterm elections, taking over 76%, it is reasonable to expect that, short of a miracle, no Republican nominee will emerge victorious in 2020, especially if inexperienced and underfunded.
Now, the good news: VA8 is the Kingmaker Congressional District that has decided the outcome in all statewide elections for over two decades, and Arlington is the crown jewel. Mark Warner, up for re-election, only won by one percentage point, and the President lost Virginia’s 13 Electoral College Votes by only 5 debatable points in 2016.
More likely than not, to defeat the President in 2020, the Democrats will identify at least one “shill,” to convince that he or she needs to run for Congress, so as to drain off the “rejection” vote, and counter any support for the Republican ticket, which has for the past two election cycles has attempted to distance itself from the President on the false hope that they might be more appealing to Democrats. If the individual is not motivated by the Democrats to commence this task, he or she has made the wholly unrational choice to attempt to go against the overwhelming force of history, especially not having even yet begun to make the substantial financial investment to reach over 400,000 eligible voters in this congressional district before November. Yet, somehow they have had the amazing oranizational ability to amass at least one thousand valid signatures to qualify to appear on the ballot in the past.
And, short of some miracle, one can reasonably expect the regular mobilization of volunteers at the voting precincts throughout the election season, beginning with absentee “early voting,” and supplmented by special interest and Democrat Party volunteers distributing post cards, knocking on doors and registering voters to get out the vote, with little or no counter force deployed by the VA8 GOP.
But, as explained in the video link below, the President requires on the ground support to carry Virginia for the first time for a Republican Nominee since the 2000 race of President George H.W. Bush.
In 2020, like in the movie Air Force One, “Liberty 24 has changed its call sign.”